Virginia Joins National Popular Vote Compact as Gov. Spanberger Signs Landmark Electoral Bill

Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger has signed legislation committing the Commonwealth’s 13 electoral votes to the winner of the national popular vote, making Virginia the latest state to join the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC). The move has drawn sharp criticism from opponents who argue it effectively nullifies the votes of Virginia residents and raises serious constitutional questions about how presidents are elected in the United States.

The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, first conceived in 2006 by Stanford professor John Koza and colleagues, represents one of the most ambitious attempts to reform the American presidential election system without amending the Constitution. The compact operates on a straightforward principle rooted in Article II, Section 1 of the U.S. Constitution, which grants state legislatures the authority to determine how their electors are appointed. Under the agreement, participating states would award all of their electoral votes to whichever presidential candidate wins the most votes nationwide — but only once enough states have joined to guarantee 270 electoral votes, the threshold needed to win the presidency. Maryland became the first state to join in 2007, and the compact has gradually accumulated participating states, almost exclusively those controlled by Democratic legislatures. Virginia’s addition brings the total to approximately 222 electoral votes, leaving the compact 48 votes short of activation.

The debate over the compact touches on one of the most enduring tensions in American democracy: the balance between direct popular sovereignty and the federalist structure designed by the Founders. In five presidential elections — 1824, 1876, 1888, 2000, and 2016 — the winner of the popular vote did not win the Electoral College. Most recently, Hillary Clinton won nearly 2.9 million more votes than Donald Trump in 2016 but lost the Electoral College 304 to 227. Proponents of the compact argue that every voter’s ballot should carry equal weight regardless of which state they live in, and point out that the current system incentivizes candidates to focus almost exclusively on a handful of swing states. According to the nonprofit organization FairVote, two-thirds of general election campaign events in 2020 took place in just six states. Opponents, however, argue that the Electoral College protects the interests of smaller and rural states, prevents regional candidates from dominating elections, and forces coalitions that span diverse geographic areas. They also warn that the compact could create chaotic scenarios — for instance, if Virginia voters overwhelmingly supported one candidate but the compact forced the state’s electors to vote for the opposing candidate who won the national popular vote.

The constitutional legality of the compact remains an open and fiercely debated question among legal scholars. Some constitutional experts argue that the Compact Clause of Article I, Section 10 requires congressional approval for any interstate compact that affects the balance of political power — a standard the NPVIC would almost certainly meet. Others contend that because the Constitution explicitly grants state legislatures plenary power over elector appointment, the compact is a permissible exercise of that authority. No federal court has definitively ruled on the compact’s constitutionality, but if it ever reaches the 270-vote threshold and takes effect, legal challenges would be virtually certain, potentially reaching the U.S. Supreme Court. Spanberger, a former CIA officer and congresswoman who was elected Virginia’s first female governor in 2025, has framed the signing as a step toward modernizing American democracy, while Republican legislators in Richmond have vowed to pursue repeal and legal challenges.

Looking ahead, the compact’s path to the 270-vote threshold remains uncertain. Nearly all states that have joined are reliably Democratic, and no Republican-controlled legislature has passed the measure. For the compact to take effect, it would likely need to win passage in at least some politically competitive or traditionally Republican-leaning states — a prospect that appears remote in the current political environment. Meanwhile, several states that previously considered the compact have seen legislative efforts stall or fail. The question of whether the NPVIC will ever activate, and whether it could survive judicial scrutiny if it does, remains one of the most consequential unresolved questions in American election law.